The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth, lowering it by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) from its previous estimate, primarily due to sluggish demand in developed OECD nations. This adjustment widens the gap between IEA and OPEC projections, reflecting differing perspectives on global demand trends and the pace of the transition to cleaner fuels.
According to the IEA’s monthly report, global oil demand is anticipated to grow by 1.1 million bpd this year, with weakened industrial activity and a mild winter dampening gas oil consumption, particularly in Europe. Despite this decline in OECD demand, non-OECD demand, led by China, remains resilient.
Conversely, OPEC maintains its projection of a 2.25 million bpd increase in global oil demand for 2024, highlighting a notable discrepancy of around 1.15 million bpd between the two organizations’ forecasts.
While the IEA and OPEC converge on their 2025 projections, with both foreseeing moderate demand growth, their perspectives on the long-term demand outlook diverge significantly. The IEA anticipates oil demand to peak by 2030, whereas OPEC foresees continued growth over the next two decades, refraining from forecasting a demand peak.
