The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil supply will exceed demand by over 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, even if OPEC+ maintains its current production cuts, according to the agency’s monthly oil market report released Thursday.
The IEA kept its 2025 oil demand growth forecast nearly unchanged, predicting a 990,000 bpd increase next year. Sluggish Chinese demand continues to dampen global oil demand growth, with China’s third-quarter consumption down by 270,000 bpd compared to the same period in 2023, following six months of consecutive declines through September.
The IEA also raised its 2024 demand growth forecast slightly, adding 60,000 bpd for a total expected increase of 920,000 bpd, driven by higher-than-anticipated gasoil demand in OECD countries during the third quarter.
