Cocoa prices fell on Thursday due to favorable weather conditions in West Africa, which are expected to result in a global surplus for the 2024/25 season.
In New York, December cocoa dropped 1.7% to $6,901 per ton by 0921 GMT. According to a Reuters poll of 12 traders and analysts, a surplus of 108,500 tons is projected for the upcoming season, reversing the record deficit of 475,000 tons in 2023/24.
Despite this forecast, short-term supply constraints have led to a notable increase in premiums for the September contract, which has risen to around $1,690 per ton from approximately $1,000 at the start of the month. ICE Futures US reported that cocoa stocks in licensed warehouses totaled 2.85 million bags as of August 7, down from 3.14 million a month earlier. ING noted that current supply shortages are causing grinders to deplete their stockpiles, resulting in the lowest cocoa bean inventories in US warehouses in four years.
In London, December cocoa decreased by 2.25% to £5,379 per ton.
Coffee
September arabica coffee declined by 0.5% to $2.4510 per lb, retreating slightly after reaching a three-week high of $2.48 on Wednesday. Although Brazil’s state weather forecaster CPTEC issued a frost alert for the weekend, the frosts are not expected to affect major coffee-growing regions.
September robusta coffee fell 0.3% to $4,466 per ton.
Sugar
October raw sugar decreased by 0.3% to 18.09 cents per lb. Traders are awaiting production data from industry group Unica regarding cane and sugar production in Brazil’s Centre-South region. An S&P Global Commodity Insights survey projected a 2.4% decrease in sugar production for the second half of July, estimating 3.6 million tons. October white sugar, however, saw a slight increase of 0.2% to $515.50 per ton.
